Conditional probability surfaces across every indicator, regime, and timeframe.
The Probability Engine transforms raw indicator states into conditional probability surfaces. Every agent, every recommendation, every risk call is built on this. So you can act on probability, not intuition.
Probability-first decisions. The engine replaces qualitative calls with conditional probability surfaces. When Macro says "cautious stance," the engine quantifies exactly how cautious — regime-specific win rates, drawdown distributions, time-to-reset.
engine.query(
given=[("VIX", "> 25", "daily")],
what="forward_distribution",
horizon=[10, 21, 63]
)
→ P(+5%|10d) = 34.2%
→ P(-5%|10d) = 12.8%
→ win_rate_63d = 68%Cross-agent intelligence. One surface feeds six agents simultaneously. Signal reads win rates, Risk reads tail probabilities, Options reads vol forecasts, Valuation reads distributional fair value. Different questions, same truth.
surface = engine.query("CRDO")
signal → PASS (73% win rate)
risk → SIZE_DOWN (Kelly: 3.15%)
options → NO_EDGE (IV near fair)
val → ENRICH (dual confirm)
exit → HOLD (no reset signal)
macro → TIGHTEN (elevated vol)Every agent produces sharper, deeper, more actionable output when the Probability Engine is underneath. The transformation isn’t incremental — it’s structural.
RSI oversold on daily. Entry signal.
Binary. No probability.
Dual timeframe confirmation found in 847 historical matches — high-confidence setup with regime-adjusted sizing.
Every indicator is computed daily and weekly across 346 tickers. The engine doesn't check one at a time — it queries combinations. RSI > 70 AND StochRSI pegged AND MACD contracting. That's one query. There are 330,000+ valid combinations.
Not a random walk. Each simulated path computes Wilder RSI, StochRSI K/D, and MACD at every step using the exact same math as real data. The engine tracks when each indicator resets — on which day, at what price, through what drawdown.
Q1: How long to reset? Q2: What if price continues? Q3: What if it crashes? Q4: Can time alone reset it? Q5: How does VIX change this? Q6: MACD expanding or contracting? Q7: Full combination with confidence. Q8: Vol diagnosis.
IV Rank, VRP, skew, term structure. The engine knows what volatility should be based on the current indicator state. When market IV diverges from engine vol, that's either a trade or a warning.
The ProbabilitySurface is the one data object that flows through the entire system. Signal Agent reads forward returns. Risk Agent reads max drawdown distributions. Exit Agent reads reset timing. No agent guesses — they all compute from the same surface.
Concentration limits, drawdown circuit breakers, regime-aware exposure policy. The governance layer doesn't just flag — it blocks. A signal with 70% win rate still gets blocked if it would exceed sleeve concentration or breach a regime guardrail.
On every trade. In every regime. Six stages cycle nightly at 03:00 UTC.
Measured accuracy, latency, and coverage across every query configuration. Expand to explore.
Engine capabilities scale with your tier. Every tier includes the dashboard, signals, and journal.
Probability surfaces for every ticker in the Harbor universe.